Decay VI: The Alsager School data set
29. marts 2015
Vig reportedly found the so-called Alsager School data set on the web site of a primary school near Manchester, U.K. The data is no longer available on Alsager School’s web site, and its origin is not clear, but it was probably part of a student school project, as indicated by the universal resource locator (URL) given by Vig1 and containing the subject “geography”. Vig keeps a copy of the data in a blog entry on his personal blog “Danmark” dated Jan. 26, 2007, and this is likely the only place on Internet, where this data can presently be found, but thanks to Nyborg and Vig, and the band of incompetent editors of PAID, this completely unascertained data has gained scientic prominence and is now also available from the publisher Elsevier’s website. (And if you would like to look at it, it is actually also available here in .csv format.)
Thus, these data are without reliable reference, but Vig has been using this data set for years for his “retro-projections”, and his economic projections on the economic cost of immigration, carried out for the immigrant-hostile “Den Danske Forening”.
The “Alsager School data” is total fertility rates (TFR), consisting
of 198 rows, is present in the Excel file mmc1, published by
Elsevier as “Supplemental material” to the Editor’s Note now
accompanying the Decay article. It is found on sheet
& IQ sources, cells
In his document perspektiv.pdf, Vig cites the Alsager data and
reports that it is no longer to be found on the school’s web site.
“The link no longer works in this politically correct world,” he
writes, “but we have secured the information while it was available
on the Internet”. Because crude birth rates are required to operate
the “annuity model” of population growth, Vig has had to convert the
“Alsager School” data using his peculiar “proportional
transformation”. This operation is carried out in the Excel file
Data Fert.1,2,FN & IQ sources, column J, which is
hidden along with columns K and L.
The “proportional transformation” method consists of multiplying crude birth rates from another source with a quotient formed of total fertility rates from the Alsager School and total fertility rates from the other source. The begging question is of course, when in possesion of crude birth rates from another source, why not use those? The answer is given by Vig in his prodigious writings: he “feels” the Alsager data “reflects reality better than anything else” he has been able to find. Vig has not published the “proportionally transformed” crude birth rates for these countries, he only references these values in perspektiv.pdf.
How old is this data?
The table of “Alsager School” TFRs lists data from Zaire, which ceased to exist in 1997. Croatia is mentioned, this country was formed in 1991. Yugoslavia is mentioned, but not Serbia. Yugoslavia ceased to exist in 1992, and its successor, The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, existed from 1992 to 2003. These facts indicate that the table originates between 1991 and 1997, but most likely around 1992-1993.
We further analyzed the Alsager data by comparing it to known sets of total fertility rates available from the United Nations and the World Bank. The analysis is seen in Figure 1 below. The root mean squared deviation between Vig’s Alsager TFR data and TFR data from the known data sources is plotted as a function of year. It is clearly seen that the magnitude of the Alsager data is reminiscent of World Bank data from around year 1992-1993, where the fit between the data sets is best.